|
The implications of the changing nature of Information and Communications Technology on UK competitiveness
Summary
Information
and Communications Technology (ICT) is integral to
almost all economic and social activities. At the
same time the world of ICT is undergoing profound
changes which – unless acknowledged, analysed and
addressed – represent significant risks to the
future of this country.
The Royal Academy of
Engineering is sponsoring a study with the following
background and terms of reference.
Introduction
Information and communications technology is a broad
discipline with a very substantial impact on UK PLC.
[Malpas2000] shows the discipline of Electronics
Engineering (incl. Computing, Comms/Control &
Software) having as broad an impact as Mathematics .
Further, the discipline of computing –in terms of
both “know-what” and “know-how” – is similar to
Mathematics in that it supports all of the other
disciplines in the Universe of Engineering Matrix,
including all of the core sciences as well as the
major engineering disciplines shown.
Computing has
indeed become integral, and we believe that the UK’s
future competitiveness depends on establishing and
sustaining leadership in all aspects of ICT; with
special emphasis in “know-how”. But at the same time
the world of computing and ICT is changing
profoundly which – unless acknowledged, analysed and
addressed – represent significant risks to the
future of this country.
Background
The ICT industry
is under incredible transformational pressure around
the world. This pressure results from changes
occurring on many fronts, including globalisation,
commoditisation, market driven short-termism,
increasing systems complexity, and open innovation.
These pressures have particular significance for ICT
in the UK because of the relative lack of
substantial indigenous centres of ICT industry
leadership. With rare exceptions, most of the ICT
industry leadership in the UK is held in local
subsidiaries of multinational companies based in the
US (e.g. Microsoft, IBM, HP, Sun, and Oracle).
ICT
has been a driving force and enabler for
globalisation in many industries, and is itself a
primary target for the off-shoring of a substantial
percentage of its professional roles. For example,
in the U.S the ICT “tradable” professions contribute
over 10% of the total potential off-shorable
occupations in the entire country [Blinder2007]. And
there are now signs of pushback to globalisation in
other parts of the world. There is a possibility of
the rise of protectionist measures – especially in
the US and in Europe – though apparently less so in
the UK [Lambert2007]. These measures may have
significant, but hard to predict, consequences for
the global cross-industrial economic picture. Even
less clear is the impact such (unspecified) measures
might have on the ICT industry - an industry in
which location and skill are not containable by
national boundaries.
Public companies are under
intense and persistent scrutiny to deliver
quarter-to-quarter growth. This drives an ever
increasing focus on short-term results. Further,
this rise of “impatient capital” is squeezing the
craftsmanship out of many industries [Sennet2007].
The same is happening in ICT, with potentially
significant consequences for professional career
development, for ICT quality, and for the long term
vitality of the ICT industry in general. These
pressures are making the ICT industry an
increasingly stressful place for employees who are
experiencing very long working hours and consequent
constraints on professional development. Further,
ICT practitioners in the UK (and elsewhere) are
concerned about future opportunity as they see work
being off-shored. Perhaps the substantial reduction
in enrolments in Computer Science in Western
universities is a direct consequence. Perhaps
something more serious is at work, as suggested by
McBride in his view of the “death of computing”
[McBride2007].
Some hold to a view that “IT doesn’t
matter anymore” [Carr2003]; this view is being
refuted, but commoditisation is taking its toll, and CIO/CTO perceptions are being influenced [BCS2007].
An alternate view is that ICT and ICT skills still
matter a great deal – but ICT is changing. As noted
above, ICT is integral, and the professional skills
required for leadership are experiencing significant
transformation. Indeed, these changes have been
occurring for 20-30 years, with a steady move away
from deep skills in operating systems, programming
languages, and system fundamentals. The skills focus
now is more on applications and integration.
Computer Science is becoming more closely integrated
into many other disciplines; e.g., the application
of computing skills is needed in delivering
competitive advantage to the finance industry, in
ensuring leadership in national defence through
systems and intelligence, in solving complex
problems in biology, and in studying complex social
systems. There is a view that the current generation
of ICT professionals is the last we will see
[BCS2007]. The most important issue here is the
identification and evolution of the necessary
competitive skills in ICT. The recent government
report on Skills [Leitch2006] is certainly relevant
here – but it only scratches the surface of this
issue with respect to ICT and its profound
consequences to the UK's future.
Purpose
The
challenge is ensuring the future competitiveness of
UK Industry and the UK Economy in light of these
pressures.
Conduct
The Study Group has developed a
set of questions that will be presented to a broad
constituency of ICT creators, users and exploiters
within the UK. These questions can be found here
Provisional term of reference for the study
-
consider the importance of the ICT base for the UK
economy;
-
examine the present and projected state
of UK ICT-related business activity in a global
context;
-
identify potential ways and means for
improvement, and
-
make policy and other
recommendations
Outcome and timing
The Study Group
is expected to reach its conclusions and submit its
recommendations to Engineering Policy Committee by
December, 2008, with a view to readiness for
publication by April 2009.
Membership of the Study
Group
The Study Group membership consists of:
Rear
Admiral John Trewby, CB FREng (chair)
Mari Sako,
Peter Davidson, FREng
Robert Berry
David Gann
John McDermid, FREng
Tony Storey, FREng
Graham Paterson
Rob Witty, FREng
Mike Rodd,
Rebecca George, OBE
Philip Hargrave, FREng
Jim Norton
Ian Nussey, OBE,
FREng
Martyn Thomas, CBE, FREng
Pieter Lindeque,
FREng
Participation will additionally be sought from
such as:
-
certain professional engineering
societies
-
a professional economist; and
-
industry
representatives, provisionally including finance and
pharmaceutical
Study Methodology
The study will be
conducted similarly to previous studies, e.g., The
Universe of Engineering [Malpas2000] and the
Challenges of Complex IT Projects [CCITP2004].
There
will be four phases: 1) Identification of core
issues and questions the study should address, 2)
evidence gathering to resolve the issues raised in
the core questions; 3) report writing, followed by
4) dissemination
We will conduct a series of
interviews with leaders from across and beyond the
UK. These leaders will be drawn from Government, ICT
industry users, and suppliers, relevant professional
societies and universities. We will also include
leaders from disciplines relating to business
leadership, economic policy, and general innovation.
We will augment evidence collected from interviews
and desk sources by an invitation mechanism aimed -
in particular but not exclusively- at leaders in ICT
and related disciplines.
The report will focus on
presenting key findings and recommendations relating
to the core questions, based on evidence collected
through various phases of the study. The strategy to
disseminate and promote the findings will be evolved
as the study progresses
The study chair
The study
chair is Rear Admiral John Trewby, CB FREng.
References
[BCS2007] “What are the right things to
do to sustain UK competitiveness in 2025”, BCS, The
Future of Computing,
http://www.bcs.org/server.php?show=ConWebDoc.9982,
February, 2007-08-02
[Blinder2007] Alan S. Blinder,
“How many U.S. Jobs Might be Offshorable?”, CEPS
Working Paper No. 142, Princeton University, March
2007.
[Carr2003] Nicholas Carr, “IT Doesn’t Matter”,
Harvard Business Review, 2003.
[CCITP2004] The Royal
Academy of Engineering and the British Computer
Society, “The Challenges of Complex IT Projects”,
August, 2004
[Chesbrough2007] Henry William Chesbrough, “Open Innovation: The New Imperative for
Creating and Profiting from Technology”, Harvard
Business School Publishing Corporation, 2003.
[JFE2007] The Journal of Food Engineering, Elsevier
Ltd.,
www.elsevier.com/locate/foodeng
[Lambert2007]
Richard Lambert, “Business Leadership in a changing
world”, Centenary Alumni Keynote Address, Imperial
College London, Tanaka Business School, July 2007.
[Leitch2006] Sandy Leitch, “Review of Skills.
Prosperity for all in the global economy – world
class skills”. December 2006.
[Malpas2000] Sir
Robert Malpas, “The Universe of Engineering. A UK
Perspective”, The Royal Academy of Engineering, June
2000.
[McBride2007] Neil McBride, “The Death of
Computing”, BCS, The Future of Computing,
http://www.bcs.org/server.php?show=ConWebDoc.9662,
January, 2007.
[Sennett2007] Huw Richards, “Master
of his crafts. Interview with Richard Sennett”, The
Times Higher, July 20, 2007, p14-15.
|
